ARUBA: INFORMATION BULLETIN NR. 1

INFORMATION BULLETIN NR. 1
Date: Thursday August 17, 2017 Time: 5 PM local time
Watches/warnings: None
Effect on local conditions
Winds: During the island pass between 19/8 21:00 UTC and 20/8 00:00UTC , an average wind of 10 – 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt is possible…
Saturday morning the wind will back to northeast and veer to southeast, after the system made it’s pass well north of the local region and island.
There is a risk for a gale force winds 6 Bft gusting during showers. Keep in mind errors for track and intensity mentioned in NHC advisory.
Seas: 4 to 8 feet range expected from 19/8 12:00 UTC until 20/8 06:00 UTC on the northern coastal area and 2 to 4 feet on the southern coastal area.
Rainfall: Amounts of around 5 to 15 mm are possibly, locally more, during the overnight of Saturday until Sunday morning.
Local authorities and residents of Aruba are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system
and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.

Forecast positions:
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.8W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM…WEAK TROPICAL STORM…400 KM EAST OF BARBADOS

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.8W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.1N 58.3W…..1265 KM EAST OF ARUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT….WEAK TROPICAL STORM
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.4N 61.6W…..910 KM EAST OF ARUBA
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT….WEAK TROPICAL STORM
34 KT… 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.7N 65.1W…..540 KM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ARUBA
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT….MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
34 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.8W…..205 KM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ARUBA
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT….MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
34 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.5W…..740 KM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF ARUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT….STRONG TROPICAL STORM
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT… 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 88.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

*A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24-36 HOURS.

*TROPICAL STORM WATCH: A watch for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds
within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63) knots are expected in specified areas in 48 hours
or less.

Next bulletin: Friday August 18, 2017, 12 AM local time

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